Sun, Jan 8, 2017·United Center, Chicago
Nashville Predators 2, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 16 | 011 | 110 | 227 |
| CHI | 27 | 016 | 38 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:45CHIArtemi PanarinAssists: Patrick Kane, Brian Campbell · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 8:30NSHMattias EkholmAssists: Mike Fisher · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 14:04CHINiklas HjalmarssonAssists: Duncan Keith, Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 2:01NSHAustin WatsonAssists: Mike Fisher · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–2
- P3 11:49CHIRyan HartmanGWGAssists: Richard Panik, Tanner Kero · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–3
- P3 18:46CHIRyan HartmanENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.59 xG2–4
- P3 19:28CHIRyan HartmanENAssists: Patrick Kane, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Wrist, 0.56 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:29CHIVinnie Hinostroza: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 11:16CHIMichal Kempny: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:28NSHKevin Fiala: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:36CHIArtemi Panarin: Charging2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Anisimov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Watson – Sissons11:37
xG 0.48–0.25 (66%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Johansen – Forsberg12:17
xG 0.27–0.20 (57%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Zolnierczyk – Gaudreau – Kamenev7:16
xG 0.02–0.05 (28%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Fiala13:47
xG 0.76–1.37 (36%)attempts 16–22goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Irwin16:56
xG 1.09–0.41 (73%)attempts 19–14goals 2–0
- Josi – Ellis20:11
xG 0.50–0.41 (55%)attempts 21–19goals 0–2
- Weber – Bitetto10:58
xG 0.19–1.13 (15%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestPanik – Hartman – Kero10:09
xG 0.82–0.13 (87%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Tootoo – Desjardins – Rasmussen5:44
xG 0.15–0.02 (90%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Hossa – Toews – Hinostroza12:47
xG 0.36–0.43 (46%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin14:36
xG 0.59–1.02 (36%)attempts 15–17goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – van Riemsdyk15:55
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson17:01
xG 0.34–0.40 (47%)attempts 13–19goals 1–0
- Seabrook – Kempny12:07
xG 0.48–0.73 (40%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).