Mon, Jan 9, 2017·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Calgary Flames 0, Winnipeg Jets 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 09 | 06 | 013 | 028 |
| WPG | 16 | 012 | 19 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:21WPGDustin ByfuglienGWGAssists: Drew Stafford, Nikolaj Ehlers · Slap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P3 3:16WPGBlake WheelerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:16WPGJacob Trouba: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:33WPGToby Enstrom: Holding2 min
- P1 17:26CGYMark Giordano: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:42CGYDennis Wideman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:26CGYMikael Backlund: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 14:42WPGJosh Morrissey: Holding2 min
- P3 18:05CGYSam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:05WPGJacob Trouba: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Bouma – Hathaway7:00
xG 0.30–0.02 (94%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Gaudreau – Monahan10:02
xG 0.14–0.02 (87%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Ferland – Bennett8:39
xG 0.10–0.84 (11%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk9:16
xG 0.21–0.97 (18%)attempts 9–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Wideman – Brodie16:45
xG 0.64–0.65 (50%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Engelland – Jokipakka9:18
xG 0.13–0.37 (26%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Giordano – Hamilton14:40
xG 0.38–0.82 (31%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Scheifele – Ehlers11:39
xG 0.85–0.45 (65%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Matthias – Lowry – Armia11:51
xG 0.46–0.17 (73%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Little – Perreault7:59
xG 0.28–0.04 (88%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Copp – Petan3:06
xG 0.39–0.16 (71%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Trouba15:36
xG 0.64–0.22 (75%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Morrissey15:30
xG 0.95–0.59 (62%)attempts 14–19goals 2–0
- Postma – Chiarot8:18
xG 0.38–0.10 (79%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).