Tue, Jan 10, 2017·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 16 | 28 | 013 | 327 |
| CAR | 04 | 314 | 210 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:08CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Jack Johnson, Boone Jenner · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 2:01CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Victor Rask, Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 4:57CARDerek RyanAssists: Jeff Skinner, Victor Rask · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 8:01CBJJosh AndersonUnassisted · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 13:58CARBrock McGinnAssists: Matt Tennyson, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P2 19:05CBJBrandon SaadAssists: Alexander Wennberg · Snap, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 3:50CARJordan StaalGWGAssists: Elias Lindholm · Deflected, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 19:39CARVictor RaskENAssists: Jeff Skinner, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.72 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:29CBJBoone Jenner: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:30CARSebastian Aho: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:57CBJBrandon Dubinsky: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:27CARJeff Skinner: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:15CARViktor Stalberg: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:41CARBrett Pesce: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Karlsson – Anderson7:45
xG 0.64–0.19 (77%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner4:51
xG 0.34–0.06 (84%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Foligno – Jenner8:30
xG 0.27–0.13 (68%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Saad – Wennberg6:36
xG 0.54–0.46 (54%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski15:25
xG 0.91–0.36 (72%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Johnson – Savard13:13
xG 0.82–0.32 (72%)attempts 20–9goals 1–1
- Murray – Nutivaara10:13
xG 0.47–0.77 (38%)attempts 12–11goals 2–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Rask – Ryan10:22
xG 0.60–0.16 (79%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- McClement – Stalberg – Nordstrom4:07
xG 0.10–0.05 (68%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Teravainen – Aho12:17
xG 0.21–0.47 (31%)attempts 8–12goals 0–2
- Staal – McGinn – Lindholm13:16
xG 0.56–1.00 (36%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Slavin – Pesce18:06
xG 0.85–0.87 (49%)attempts 20–20goals 1–1
- Tennyson – Hanifin9:50
xG 0.36–0.70 (34%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Hainsey – Faulk15:13
xG 0.27–0.72 (27%)attempts 10–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).