Tue, Jan 10, 2017·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Vancouver Canucks 1, Nashville Predators 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 04 | 011 | 113 | 02 | 130 |
| NSH | 08 | 110 | 07 | 11 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:35NSHAustin WatsonAssists: Mike Fisher, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–1
- P3 19:11VANBrandon SutterAssists: Sven Baertschi, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- OT 4:58NSHCalle JarnkrokSHGWGAssists: Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.00 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:34VANJack Skille: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:30VANTroy Stecher: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:41NSHRyan Ellis: Holding2 min
- P3 14:36NSHFilip Forsberg: Tripping2 min
- OT 3:20NSHMattias Ekholm: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSkille – Chaput – Gaunce7:03
xG 0.60–0.14 (81%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Eriksson13:51
xG 0.50–0.28 (64%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Sutter – Granlund – Megna11:41
xG 0.24–0.07 (77%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Burrows – Baertschi – Horvat11:57
xG 0.15–0.58 (20%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Stecher15:44
xG 0.56–0.44 (56%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Sbisa – Tanev15:28
xG 0.31–0.22 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Biega – Tryamkin11:23
xG 0.62–0.54 (53%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson13:09
xG 0.60–0.29 (68%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Fisher – Watson – Sissons11:04
xG 0.47–0.37 (56%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Aberg – Fiala4:17
xG 0.03–0.04 (47%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Fiala3:56
xG 0.06–0.09 (42%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Irwin18:24
xG 0.54–0.26 (68%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis20:12
xG 0.75–0.80 (48%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
- Weber – Bitetto11:20
xG 0.16–0.49 (24%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).