Wed, Jan 11, 2017·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Montréal Canadiens 7, Winnipeg Jets 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 310 | 210 | 210 | 730 |
| WPG | 210 | 13 | 114 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:57MTLPhillip DanaultAssists: Alexander Radulov, Max Pacioretty · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 4:19MTLBrian FlynnAssists: Sven Andrighetto, Nathan Beaulieu · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 6:07WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Drew Stafford · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P1 12:58WPGMathieu PerreaultAssists: Blake Wheeler, Bryan Little · Snap, 0.14 xG2–2
- P1 14:01MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Artturi Lehkonen · Snap, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 0:53MTLSven AndrighettoAssists: Brian Flynn, Torrey Mitchell · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–2
- P2 4:31MTLPhillip DanaultGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG5–2
- P2 5:06WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Nic Petan · Snap, 0.17 xG5–3
- P3 4:10MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Shea Weber, Paul Byron · Deflected, 0.09 xG6–3
- P3 9:05MTLArtturi LehkonenPPAssists: Nathan Beaulieu, Shea Weber · Slap, 0.56 xG7–3
- P3 10:04WPGBryan LittleAssists: Drew Stafford · Snap, 0.07 xG7–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:37MTLPhillip Danault: Holding2 min
- P1 7:46MTLJeff Petry: Holding2 min
- P2 4:56MTLTorrey Mitchell: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 10:41WPGBlake Wheeler: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:54WPGShawn Matthias: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P3 12:20MTLRyan Johnston: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestMcCarron – Carr – Scherbak8:31
xG 0.58–0.08 (88%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Radulov – Pacioretty – Danault11:54
xG 1.13–0.80 (58%)attempts 15–16goals 2–2
- Mitchell – Flynn – Andrighetto10:14
xG 0.48–0.16 (75%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
- Plekanec – Byron – Lehkonen8:25
xG 0.38–0.59 (39%)attempts 5–7goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Emelin16:29
xG 1.03–0.56 (65%)attempts 15–16goals 3–0
- Petry – Beaulieu19:58
xG 1.10–0.94 (54%)attempts 16–15goals 3–2
- Barberio – Johnston9:17
xG 0.40–0.38 (51%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Little – Ehlers5:05
xG 0.52–0.29 (64%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
- Thorburn – Copp – Petan5:47
xG 0.21–0.11 (65%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Stafford – Scheifele – Ehlers6:39
xG 0.26–0.18 (60%)attempts 4–3goals 1–1
- Wheeler – Little – Perreault7:32
xG 0.26–0.51 (34%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Enstrom – Trouba18:13
xG 0.75–0.77 (49%)attempts 11–13goals 1–3
- Postma – Chiarot10:20
xG 0.27–0.62 (30%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Byfuglien – Morrissey15:01
xG 0.46–0.90 (34%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).