Wed, Jan 11, 2017·Verizon Center, Washington
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 013 | 010 | 29 | 232 |
| WSH | 19 | 111 | 310 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:35WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 8:06WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P3 4:31WSHJustin WilliamsGWGAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–3
- P3 7:46PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Justin Schultz, Phil Kessel · Slap, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 13:11WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: T.J. Oshie, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–4
- P3 17:24PITPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–4
- P3 19:42WSHLars EllerENAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.63 xG2–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:24WSHT.J. Oshie: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:18WSHBrooks Orpik: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:18PITMatt Cullen: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:04WSHJustin Williams: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:04PITIan Cole: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:41PITConor Sheary: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 7:35PITCarl Hagelin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:12WSHBrett Connolly: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:06PITSteve Oleksy: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:28WSHDmitry Orlov: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:13WSHT.J. Oshie: Holding2 min
- P3 12:29PITSteve Oleksy: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:24WSHT.J. Oshie: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Hornqvist – Hagelin8:18
xG 0.50–0.23 (69%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Cullen – Fehr – Wilson7:12
xG 0.22–0.28 (44%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Sheary10:04
xG 0.16–0.36 (31%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Kunitz – Kessel – Bonino5:10
xG 0.10–0.50 (16%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Oleksy2:05
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Schultz – Maatta4:47
xG 0.19–0.06 (75%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Daley – Oleksy4:22
xG 0.23–0.10 (70%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Johansson – Kuznetsov10:34
xG 0.83–0.12 (87%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom8:29
xG 0.42–0.15 (74%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Winnik – Beagle – Wilson8:21
xG 0.50–0.34 (59%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Eller – Connolly – Burakovsky6:05
xG 0.09–0.22 (30%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Orlov14:26
xG 0.80–0.32 (71%)attempts 14–14goals 2–0
- Alzner – Carlson9:35
xG 0.56–0.18 (76%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Orpik – Schmidt9:45
xG 0.44–0.45 (49%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).