Thu, Jan 12, 2017·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 08 | 114 | 08 | 130 |
| OTT | 215 | 19 | 19 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:29OTTBobby RyanPPAssists: Chris Wideman, Derick Brassard · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 9:26OTTMike HoffmanPPGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Kyle Turris · Deflected, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 12:50OTTTom PyattAssists: Erik Karlsson, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 19:53PITConor ShearyAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Ian Cole · Snap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 8:59OTTMark StoneAssists: Derick Brassard, Zack Smith · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:44PITCarl Hagelin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 6:19OTTChris Neil: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 9:19PITSteve Oleksy: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:43PITTom Kuhnhackl: Holding2 min
- P2 6:09OTTChris Wideman: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:02OTTMark Borowiecki: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:31PITNick Bonino: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:51PITJustin Schultz: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 18:03PITSteve Oleksy: Game misconduct head coach0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Hornqvist – Wilson7:56
xG 0.51–0.15 (78%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Kunitz – Kessel – Bonino8:33
xG 0.26–0.13 (67%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Cullen – Kuhnhackl – Wilson2:17
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Hagelin2:49
xG 0.12–0.10 (55%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Schultz14:21
xG 0.66–0.18 (79%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Oleksy – Maatta6:57
xG 0.41–0.04 (91%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Cole – Oleksy2:27
xG 0.07–0.06 (55%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Turris – Dzingel11:36
xG 0.36–0.11 (76%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Hoffman – Pageau7:34
xG 0.44–0.24 (65%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Neil – Kelly – Lazar4:48
xG 0.18–0.16 (53%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Brassard – Smith – Stone10:10
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson11:22
xG 0.38–0.20 (65%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Ceci11:54
xG 0.43–0.37 (54%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Borowiecki2:23
xG 0.11–0.13 (46%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).