Thu, Jan 12, 2017·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Montréal Canadiens 1, Minnesota Wild 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 08 | 06 | 17 | 121 |
| MIN | 16 | 38 | 310 | 724 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:34MINChristian FolinAssists: Eric Staal, Jonas Brodin · Backhand, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 6:35MINEric StaalGWGAssists: Charlie Coyle, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 7:14MINJordan SchroederAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Ryan Suter · Deflected, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 17:58MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Mikko Koivu, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–4
- P3 3:31MINJason ZuckerPPAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–5
- P3 6:06MINRyan SuterPPAssists: Mathew Dumba, Eric Staal · Slap, 0.04 xG0–6
- P3 14:26MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Jason Pominville, Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–7
- P3 19:51MTLTomas PlekanecPPAssists: Mark Barberio, Sven Andrighetto · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–7
Penalties (6)
- P2 13:51MTLAlexander Radulov: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 1:32MTLPhillip Danault: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:51MTLShea Weber: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:59MINChris Stewart: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:59MTLPaul Byron: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:59MINChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Byron – Lehkonen9:26
xG 0.20–0.03 (88%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Radulov – Pacioretty – Danault13:15
xG 0.23–0.08 (74%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Flynn – Andrighetto11:49
xG 0.12–0.24 (33%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Terry – McCarron – Carr10:52
xG 0.09–0.43 (18%)attempts 7–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBarberio – Redmond13:01
xG 0.24–0.16 (59%)attempts 15–4goals 0–1
- Weber – Emelin17:20
xG 0.21–0.36 (37%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
- Petry – Beaulieu13:29
xG 0.28–0.73 (28%)attempts 17–8goals 0–3
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Haula – Niederreiter9:59
xG 0.65–0.13 (84%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Stewart – Schroeder – Graovac13:00
xG 0.39–0.20 (67%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Staal – Parise – Coyle10:57
xG 0.24–0.16 (60%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund11:08
xG 0.05–0.23 (17%)attempts 4–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Dumba11:53
xG 0.57–0.19 (75%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
- Suter – Spurgeon17:32
xG 0.51–0.29 (63%)attempts 11–19goals 1–0
- Scandella – Folin3:19
xG 0.09–0.02 (81%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).