Thu, Jan 12, 2017·Rogers Place, Edmonton
New Jersey Devils 2, Edmonton Oilers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 16 | 17 | 05 | 01 | 219 |
| EDM | 09 | 19 | 112 | 14 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:06NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Michael Cammalleri · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 0:16EDMAndrej SekeraAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Adam Larsson · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 19:09NJDSteven SantiniAssists: Taylor Hall, PA Parenteau · Tip-in, 0.28 xG2–1
- P3 12:36EDMPatrick MaroonAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–2
- OT 1:50EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Oscar Klefbom · Slap, 0.25 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:28NJDMichael Cammalleri: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:31NJDDamon Severson: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:55EDMMark Letestu: Tripping2 min
- P1 0:00EDMKris Russell: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:00NJDKyle Palmieri: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:11EDMAdam Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:00EDMZack Kassian: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:45NJDTaylor Hall: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 2:45EDMZack Kassian: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Zajac – Palmieri9:33
xG 0.35–0.11 (77%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Cammalleri – Palmieri – Coleman2:14
xG 0.01–0.18 (3%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Smith-Pelly – Coleman – Lappin2:35
xG 0.06–0.38 (13%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Bennett – Wood – Kalinin4:42
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Lovejoy – Santini2:16
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Quincey – Severson13:36
xG 0.52–0.63 (45%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Stollery – Santini10:23
xG 0.44–0.61 (42%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Draisaitl – McDavid14:59
xG 1.08–0.43 (71%)attempts 15–8goals 2–1
- Pouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins10:02
xG 0.53–0.12 (81%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Lucic – Slepyshev – Caggiula9:49
xG 0.53–0.15 (78%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Letestu – Kassian – Khaira5:50
xG 0.37–0.37 (50%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Russell13:31
xG 0.72–0.11 (87%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Russell – Larsson2:13
xG 0.57–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Larsson – Klefbom3:32
xG 0.19–0.03 (87%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).