Thu, Jan 12, 2017·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
St. Louis Blues 1, Los Angeles Kings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 06 | 12 | 014 | 122 |
| LAK | 212 | 311 | 05 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:18LAKJake MuzzinPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Nic Dowd · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 18:12LAKTrevor LewisGWGAssists: Marian Gaborik, Alec Martinez · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 4:43LAKJake MuzzinAssists: Marian Gaborik, Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 5:34LAKTanner PearsonAssists: Dustin Brown, Jeff Carter · Slap, 0.02 xG0–4
- P2 7:29STLPaul StastnyAssists: Alexander Steen, Jaden Schwartz · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–4
- P2 19:48LAKTanner PearsonAssists: Jeff Carter, Dustin Brown · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:32STLJori Lehtera: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 7:24LAKNicholas Shore: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:49LAKDrew Doughty: Boarding2 min
- P2 11:17STLJaden Schwartz: Holding2 min
- P2 0:00STLRyan Reaves: Misconduct10 min
- P2 0:00LAKKyle Clifford: Misconduct10 min
- P3 1:21LAKJake Muzzin: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:00STLPatrik Berglund: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:54STLJoel Edmundson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Stastny – Schwartz6:37
xG 0.42–0.04 (91%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Yakupov3:49
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Berglund – Perron – Fabbri3:56
xG 0.25–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Berglund – Perron – Schwartz4:57
xG 0.09–0.19 (33%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Parayko13:51
xG 0.49–0.06 (89%)attempts 15–6goals 1–2
- Bouwmeester – Shattenkirk13:32
xG 0.45–0.46 (49%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Edmundson10:56
xG 0.15–0.51 (23%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestSetoguchi – Clifford – Dowd6:35
xG 0.45–0.05 (89%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Carter – Brown – Pearson8:40
xG 0.60–0.30 (67%)attempts 7–9goals 2–0
- Gaborik – Kopitar – Lewis9:51
xG 0.41–0.38 (52%)attempts 11–7goals 2–1
- King – Nolan – Shore8:47
xG 0.03–0.13 (21%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Forbort17:02
xG 0.70–0.40 (63%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- McNabb – Gravel10:34
xG 0.48–0.25 (66%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Martinez14:28
xG 0.40–0.75 (35%)attempts 10–15goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).