Fri, Jan 13, 2017·Madison Square Garden, New York
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 211 | 19 | 17 | 427 |
| NYR | 011 | 111 | 114 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:49TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Nazem Kadri, Matt Hunwick · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 17:28TORJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 9:05NYRChris KreiderAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Mats Zuccarello · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 14:27TORConnor BrownGWGAssists: Auston Matthews, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–1
- P3 13:20TORConnor CarrickPPAssists: Tyler Bozak, Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.39 xG4–1
- P3 18:35NYRJ.T. MillerAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Adam Clendening · Snap, 0.04 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:12NYRBrady Skjei: Interference2 min
- P1 12:17TORFrederik Andersen: Holding2 min
- P1 14:44TORJake Gardiner: Holding2 min
- P1 15:39NYRBrandon Pirri: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:52TORMorgan Rielly: Holding2 min
- P2 6:31NYRAdam Clendening: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:23TORJames van Riemsdyk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:50TORJake Gardiner: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:08NYRKevin Klein: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:53TORJake Gardiner: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Kadri – Nylander6:01
xG 0.59–0.11 (84%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Kadri – Nylander – Matthews2:29
xG 0.23–0.05 (82%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner10:21
xG 0.32–0.33 (49%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Martin – Gauthier – Soshnikov5:32
xG 0.20–0.49 (29%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Hunwick10:11
xG 0.73–0.24 (76%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Gardiner – Carrick11:49
xG 0.23–0.46 (34%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Rielly – Zaitsev14:16
xG 0.51–0.83 (38%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFast – Miller – Buchnevich2:42
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Grabner – Hayes – Miller7:37
xG 0.24–0.05 (84%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Nash – Lindberg – Vesey4:55
xG 0.18–0.10 (65%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Nash – Grabner – Hayes3:04
xG 0.03–0.02 (58%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Clendening11:28
xG 0.66–0.38 (63%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Girardi – Holden12:06
xG 0.36–0.30 (54%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Skjei13:41
xG 0.67–0.76 (47%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).