Fri, Jan 13, 2017·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 06 | 116 | 29 | 331 |
| TBL | 119 | 07 | 06 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:18TBLJonathan DrouinAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 16:40CBJJosh AndersonAssists: David Savard · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 4:29CBJNick FolignoPPGWGAssists: Zach Werenski, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–1
- P3 18:55CBJBoone JennerENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.51 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 17:46TBLAlex Killorn: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:46CBJJosh Anderson: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:46CBJJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:34TBLValtteri Filppula: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:49CBJSam Gagner: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:55TBLMatthew Peca: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:55TBLTyler Johnson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 12:11TBLJonathan Drouin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 16:56CBJJack Johnson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Saad won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Saad – Wennberg5:11
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Jenner – Anderson2:15
xG 0.16–0.15 (52%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Hartnell – Gagner – Sedlak4:46
xG 0.15–0.15 (51%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner4:17
xG 0.15–0.18 (46%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard17:28
xG 0.68–0.54 (56%)attempts 19–17goals 1–0
- Murray – Jones6:11
xG 0.10–0.11 (49%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski10:41
xG 0.21–0.44 (32%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Boyle – Drouin10:56
xG 0.41–0.12 (77%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Namestnikov9:23
xG 0.36–0.18 (67%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Dumont – Bournival – Paquette7:52
xG 0.45–0.28 (62%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Killorn – Johnson – Kucherov3:11
xG 0.13–0.11 (54%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman16:51
xG 0.58–0.07 (90%)attempts 23–7goals 0–0
- Garrison – Sustr13:34
xG 0.51–0.39 (57%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Coburn – Nesterov12:17
xG 0.49–0.58 (46%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).