Fri, Jan 13, 2017·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
New Jersey Devils 2, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 214 | 012 | 010 | 236 |
| CGY | 07 | 117 | 08 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:22NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Jon Merrill, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 18:31NJDTaylor HallPPGWGAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Karl Stollery · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 14:04CGYSean MonahanAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Kris Versteeg · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:58NJDKyle Quincey: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:58CGYGarnet Hathaway: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:58NJDKyle Quincey: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:45CGYDennis Wideman: Holding2 min
- P1 15:43NJDJacob Josefson: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:43CGYMichael Frolik: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:17CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 15:25CGYDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Henrique – Hall8:26
xG 0.74–0.07 (91%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Josefson – Bennett – Zacha7:55
xG 0.96–0.38 (72%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Parenteau – Henrique2:11
xG 0.27–0.03 (89%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Smith-Pelly – Coleman – Wood8:39
xG 0.37–0.25 (60%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStollery – Santini10:53
xG 1.09–0.06 (95%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Quincey – Severson14:46
xG 1.00–0.95 (51%)attempts 16–20goals 0–1
- Lovejoy – Merrill15:56
xG 0.45–0.78 (37%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Gaudreau – Bennett9:46
xG 0.61–0.27 (70%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Stajan – Bouma – Hathaway5:40
xG 0.25–0.02 (93%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Brouwer – Monahan9:17
xG 0.50–0.62 (44%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk12:22
xG 0.44–0.93 (32%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton15:45
xG 1.20–0.97 (55%)attempts 18–19goals 1–1
- Wideman – Brodie16:44
xG 0.35–0.72 (32%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Engelland – Jokipakka11:07
xG 0.34–1.13 (23%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).