Sat, Jan 14, 2017·Pepsi Center, Denver
Nashville Predators 3, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 015 | 19 | 28 | 332 |
| COL | 18 | 112 | 010 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:07COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Matt Duchene, Matt Nieto · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 2:21COLFrancois BeaucheminAssists: Mikhail Grigorenko · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 7:52NSHCody McLeodAssists: Harry Zolnierczyk, Derek Grant · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 5:00NSHMike FisherAssists: Austin Watson · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 8:06NSHFilip ForsbergGWGAssists: Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:39COLCody Goloubef: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:32NSHAnthony Bitetto: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 10:43COLCarl Soderberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:18COLJarome Iginla: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:18NSHCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:42NSHCalle Jarnkrok: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:44NSHRyan Ellis: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:44COLRene Bourque: Boarding5 min
- P2 14:44COLRene Bourque: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 1:44COLFedor Tyutin: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:24NSHMattias Ekholm: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Soderberg won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Johansen – Forsberg6:43
xG 0.41–0.11 (78%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Fisher – Watson – Sissons8:36
xG 0.42–0.14 (75%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- McLeod – Grant – Zolnierczyk5:31
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson3:23
xG 0.08–0.02 (84%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Bitetto10:38
xG 0.65–0.42 (61%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Ellis – Irwin12:07
xG 0.20–0.14 (60%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Ekholm – Granberg12:49
xG 0.29–0.24 (55%)attempts 10–12goals 2–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Comeau – Soderberg3:58
xG 0.09–0.03 (78%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Iginla – Soderberg – Colborne2:13
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Comeau – MacKinnon – Rantanen2:07
xG 0.02–0.05 (26%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
- Colborne – Grigorenko – Martinsen2:42
xG 0.04–0.10 (26%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Barrie4:57
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Goloubef – Gelinas2:13
xG 0.05–0.06 (46%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Gelinas7:19
xG 0.14–0.25 (36%)attempts 5–4goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).