Sat, Jan 14, 2017·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 214 | 014 | 15 | 333 |
| FLA | 111 | 215 | 16 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:22FLAShawn ThorntonAssists: Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 10:57CBJScott HartnellPPAssists: Ryan Murray, Seth Jones · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 18:10CBJCam AtkinsonUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 8:24FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Jason Demers · Snap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 10:46FLAJonathan MarchessaultUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 1:27FLAJaromir JagrGWGAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Jakub Kindl · Tip-in, 0.33 xG2–4
- P3 6:17CBJBoone JennerAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Seth Jones · Snap, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:07FLAJaromir Jagr: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 14:26CBJCam Atkinson: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:17CBJAlexander Wennberg: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:58FLAJason Demers: Holding2 min
- P2 19:58FLAAaron Ekblad: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:58FLAAaron Ekblad: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:58CBJJack Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:58CBJJack Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:41CBJScott Hartnell: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:01FLAAaron Ekblad: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestCalvert – Karlsson – Anderson8:09
xG 0.46–0.38 (55%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Jenner – Anderson2:13
xG 0.09–0.02 (80%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Gagner – Sedlak6:38
xG 0.23–0.19 (54%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Foligno – Saad – Wennberg10:42
xG 0.35–0.34 (51%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard13:40
xG 0.59–0.09 (87%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Savard – Murray2:31
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski11:18
xG 0.39–0.39 (50%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Trocheck – McCann10:57
xG 0.61–0.16 (79%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Thornton – Thompson – Malgin4:45
xG 0.19–0.04 (84%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Marchessault10:19
xG 0.26–0.41 (39%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Sgarbossa10:56
xG 0.40–0.66 (38%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Ekblad9:24
xG 0.61–0.22 (73%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Kindl – Ekblad5:59
xG 0.38–0.12 (76%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Kindl – Demers7:35
xG 0.45–0.24 (65%)attempts 7–6goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).