Sat, Jan 14, 2017·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Minnesota Wild 5, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 412 | 014 | 16 | 532 |
| DAL | 112 | 212 | 114 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:19MINMikko KoivuUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 3:00MINEric StaalAssists: Charlie Coyle, Christian Folin · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 4:00MINMathew DumbaAssists: Mikael Granlund, Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
- P1 12:45MINChris StewartAssists: Jordan Schroeder, Ryan Suter · Tip-in, 0.13 xG4–0
- P1 19:53DALAntoine RousselAssists: Radek Faksa, Brett Ritchie · Snap, 0.15 xG4–1
- P2 2:20DALJiri HudlerAssists: Devin Shore, John Klingberg · Snap, 0.08 xG4–2
- P2 6:06DALTyler SeguinAssists: Jamie Benn, John Klingberg · Backhand, 0.19 xG4–3
- P3 11:13DALJohn KlingbergPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jason Spezza · Slap, 0.03 xG4–4
- P3 13:15MINJason ZuckerGWGAssists: Mikael Granlund · Tip-in, 0.31 xG5–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:50MINJonas Brodin: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:23DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:35DALJohn Klingberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:38MINJason Zucker: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:03DALPatrick Eaves: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:22DALDevin Shore: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:21MINEric Staal: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Zucker – Granlund11:05
xG 0.85–0.44 (66%)attempts 15–7goals 3–1
- Stewart – Schroeder – Graovac6:17
xG 0.54–0.57 (48%)attempts 8–9goals 1–2
- Staal – Parise – Coyle11:30
xG 0.14–0.31 (32%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Pominville – Haula – Niederreiter10:21
xG 0.12–0.42 (22%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon17:30
xG 0.78–0.40 (66%)attempts 15–20goals 2–1
- Brodin – Folin10:38
xG 0.52–0.46 (53%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Scandella – Dumba13:39
xG 0.59–1.01 (37%)attempts 11–16goals 3–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestEaves – Benn – Seguin7:59
xG 0.47–0.15 (76%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Sharp – Korpikoski – Faksa8:18
xG 0.35–0.25 (58%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Hudler – Ritchie – Shore4:05
xG 0.01–0.07 (15%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Ritchie6:16
xG 0.05–0.15 (25%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell16:39
xG 0.82–0.21 (80%)attempts 20–9goals 1–1
- Hamhuis – Klingberg2:32
xG 0.39–0.09 (81%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Benn10:45
xG 0.36–0.59 (38%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).