Sat, Jan 14, 2017·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Winnipeg Jets 2, Los Angeles Kings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 09 | 17 | 111 | 01 | 228 |
| LAK | 115 | 010 | 111 | 12 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:19LAKMarian GaborikAssists: Anze Kopitar, Alec Martinez · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 15:06WPGDrew StaffordPPAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 7:38WPGDustin ByfuglienPPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 14:52LAKDustin BrownAssists: Anze Kopitar, Derek Forbort · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- OT 1:36LAKJeff CarterGWGAssists: Jake Muzzin, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:34WPGToby Enstrom: Holding2 min
- P1 17:11WPGAdam Lowry: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 0:55LAKKyle Clifford: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:45WPGDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:55LAKDustin Brown: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:25WPGJosh Morrissey: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:08LAKTrevor Lewis: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:30LAKKevin Gravel: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Copp – Petan2:29
xG 0.20–0.08 (73%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Little – Perreault – Armia9:46
xG 0.40–0.28 (59%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Stafford – Matthias – Lowry11:54
xG 0.41–0.41 (50%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers13:58
xG 0.66–0.75 (47%)attempts 13–21goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Morrissey15:35
xG 0.79–0.65 (55%)attempts 14–22goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Trouba3:30
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Stuart – Postma6:41
xG 0.19–0.28 (40%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Kopitar – Lewis10:10
xG 0.70–0.53 (57%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- King – Nolan – Shore8:27
xG 0.39–0.29 (58%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Carter – Lewis – Pearson3:36
xG 0.20–0.09 (68%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Carter – Brown – Pearson7:49
xG 0.02–0.19 (9%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Forbort16:39
xG 0.71–0.43 (62%)attempts 23–12goals 1–0
- McNabb – Gravel14:19
xG 0.67–0.57 (54%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Martinez12:17
xG 0.31–0.76 (29%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).