Mon, Jan 16, 2017·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Winnipeg Jets 2, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 011 | 04 | 213 | 228 |
| SJS | 111 | 214 | 27 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:54SJSJoel WardSHAssists: Justin Braun · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 2:45SJSTimo MeierAssists: Chris Tierney, Joel Ward · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–2
- P2 7:08SJSBrent BurnsPPGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P3 11:41SJSChris TierneyAssists: Timo Meier, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–4
- P3 17:24WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–4
- P3 19:41WPGMark ScheifeleUnassisted · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–4
- P3 19:50SJSJoe ThorntonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.55 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:25WPGMark Stuart: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:25SJSMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:39SJSDavid Schlemko: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:24SJSChris Tierney: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:21WPGPaul Postma: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P2 17:03WPGDustin Byfuglien: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 6:04WPGMathieu Perreault: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Perreault – Scheifele6:07
xG 0.28–0.08 (78%)attempts 7–3goals 1–1
- Thorburn – Copp – Petan6:51
xG 0.26–0.08 (77%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Stafford – Little – Ehlers4:57
xG 0.26–0.12 (67%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Stafford – Matthias – Lowry4:00
xG 0.39–0.33 (54%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Morrissey16:30
xG 0.68–0.40 (63%)attempts 17–15goals 1–1
- Enstrom – Trouba14:30
xG 0.63–0.60 (51%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Stuart – Postma8:28
xG 0.24–0.40 (37%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHaley – Wingels – Karlsson7:10
xG 0.16–0.02 (90%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Ward – Tierney – Meier9:19
xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Pavelski12:19
xG 0.49–0.55 (47%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Couture – Boedker – Labanc7:45
xG 0.10–0.56 (15%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Dillon15:05
xG 0.51–0.41 (55%)attempts 19–15goals 1–0
- Martin – Burns14:09
xG 0.67–0.57 (54%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun11:39
xG 0.40–0.47 (46%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).