Mon, Jan 16, 2017·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Washington Capitals 7, Pittsburgh Penguins 8 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 211 | 39 | 28 | 00 | 728 |
| PIT | 011 | 616 | 18 | 12 | 837 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:06WSHAndre BurakovskyAssists: Daniel Winnik · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 17:09WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: T.J. Oshie, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 1:17WSHJustin WilliamsAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 6:28PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Trevor Daley, Justin Schultz · Slap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 7:12PITConor ShearyAssists: Sidney Crosby, Trevor Daley · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–2
- P2 8:55PITNick BoninoAssists: Justin Schultz, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
- P2 13:47PITBryan RustAssists: Trevor Daley, Olli Maatta · Backhand, 0.03 xG3–4
- P2 14:37PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Jake Guentzel, Justin Schultz · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–5
- P2 15:07WSHBrett ConnollyAssists: Taylor Chorney, Andre Burakovsky · Tip-in, 0.06 xG4–5
- P2 16:54WSHLars EllerSHAssists: Nate Schmidt, T.J. Oshie · Tip-in, 0.21 xG5–5
- P2 17:19PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.24 xG5–6
- P3 5:55PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Conor Sheary, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–7
- P3 9:29WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Matt Niskanen · Backhand, 0.11 xG6–7
- P3 14:38WSHLars EllerAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.11 xG7–7
- OT 0:34PITConor ShearyGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.48 xG7–8
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:50PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:54PITDavid Warsofsky: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:32WSHDaniel Winnik: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:32PITPatric Hornqvist: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:41WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:07PITOlli Maatta: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:35PITOlli Maatta: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Connolly – Burakovsky8:22
xG 0.64–0.24 (73%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom12:55
xG 0.71–0.77 (48%)attempts 14–15goals 1–3
- Williams – Johansson – Kuznetsov10:32
xG 0.22–0.35 (39%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
- Winnik – Beagle – Wilson9:34
xG 0.01–0.38 (4%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChorney – Schmidt7:55
xG 0.58–0.07 (89%)attempts 8–5goals 2–0
- Niskanen – Orlov6:08
xG 0.29–0.08 (78%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Orpik – Schmidt5:25
xG 0.32–0.17 (65%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Hornqvist – Guentzel10:11
xG 0.47–0.23 (67%)attempts 13–5goals 1–1
- Kessel – Bonino – Hagelin10:57
xG 0.45–0.40 (53%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Sheary13:46
xG 0.86–0.83 (51%)attempts 19–16goals 2–1
- Cullen – Kunitz – Wilson6:15
xG 0.03–0.25 (12%)attempts 3–4goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Schultz16:06
xG 0.64–0.53 (55%)attempts 22–12goals 1–2
- Daley – Maatta14:15
xG 0.54–0.56 (49%)attempts 10–12goals 2–1
- Schultz – Maatta2:06
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).