Tue, Jan 17, 2017·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Ottawa Senators 6, St. Louis Blues 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 18 | 29 | 37 | 624 |
| STL | 19 | 16 | 28 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:03OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Tom Pyatt, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 9:34STLPaul StastnyAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Alexander Steen · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 13:26OTTMike HoffmanPPAssists: Kyle Turris, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 14:51OTTBobby RyanAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Kyle Turris · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 19:14STLKevin ShattenkirkAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Dmitrij Jaskin · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 1:35STLAlexander SteenPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 2:35OTTMark StoneUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 13:53OTTMike HoffmanGWGAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Tom Pyatt · Slap, 0.10 xG5–3
- P3 18:47OTTMark StoneENAssists: Derick Brassard, Zack Smith · Wrist, 0.69 xG6–3
- P3 19:12STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Joel Edmundson, David Perron · Tip-in, 0.08 xG6–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:20STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:20OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:30OTTKyle Turris: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:59STLJay Bouwmeester: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:26STLPaul Stastny: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:28STLAlexander Steen: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:28OTTDerick Brassard: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:43OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Turris – Dzingel11:13
xG 0.58–0.18 (76%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Hoffman – Pageau11:27
xG 0.54–0.37 (59%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
- Brassard – Smith – Stone11:00
xG 0.30–0.45 (40%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Neil – Kelly – Lazar6:45
xG 0.09–0.35 (21%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Wideman8:02
xG 0.44–0.34 (56%)attempts 12–8goals 2–1
- Methot – Karlsson16:33
xG 0.71–0.62 (53%)attempts 13–19goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – Ceci3:21
xG 0.16–0.14 (52%)attempts 3–3goals 0–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBerglund – Perron – Jaskin4:02
xG 0.27–0.05 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Steen – Stastny – Schwartz12:30
xG 0.61–0.47 (56%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Fabbri3:04
xG 0.07–0.01 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Berglund – Perron – Fabbri9:56
xG 0.37–0.47 (44%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Parayko14:50
xG 0.42–0.26 (61%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Shattenkirk17:02
xG 0.81–0.67 (55%)attempts 18–12goals 2–2
- Bortuzzo – Pietrangelo3:07
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).