Tue, Jan 17, 2017·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
New Jersey Devils 4, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 06 | 18 | 312 | 426 |
| MIN | 115 | 111 | 19 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:58MINJared SpurgeonPPAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–1
- P2 9:24MINJason ZuckerAssists: Mikael Granlund, Mikko Koivu · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 13:19NJDPavel ZachaPPAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Karl Stollery · Deflected, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 5:23NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Taylor Hall, PA Parenteau · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 9:08MINErik HaulaAssists: Charlie Coyle, Jared Spurgeon · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 9:30NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 17:43NJDBeau BennettGWGAssists: Blake Coleman, Miles Wood · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 17:28NJDDevante Smith-Pelly: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 5:50NJDKarl Stollery: Interference2 min
- P2 12:33MINMikko Koivu: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:07NJDBen Lovejoy: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestSmith-Pelly – Coleman – Wood8:45
xG 0.29–0.18 (62%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Cammalleri – Zajac – Palmieri10:22
xG 0.11–0.16 (42%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Parenteau – Henrique – Hall11:38
xG 0.37–0.43 (46%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Josefson – Bennett – Zacha9:42
xG 0.26–0.96 (21%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Lovejoy4:02
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Merrill – Severson2:39
xG 0.03–0.01 (77%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Merrill13:28
xG 0.43–0.56 (43%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Haula – Niederreiter5:35
xG 0.88–0.03 (97%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund14:43
xG 0.62–0.24 (72%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Haula – Coyle – Niederreiter6:37
xG 0.29–0.15 (66%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Staal – Parise – Coyle7:17
xG 0.05–0.02 (69%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Dumba12:27
xG 0.74–0.30 (71%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon14:00
xG 0.48–0.18 (73%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Brodin – Folin7:55
xG 0.44–0.16 (74%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).