Tue, Jan 17, 2017·Honda Center, Anaheim
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Anaheim Ducks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 07 | 111 | 010 | 00 | 128 |
| ANA | 02 | 17 | 010 | 12 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:36TBLValtteri FilppulaAssists: Nikita Nesterov, Anton Stralman · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 4:57ANARyan GetzlafUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- OT 0:54ANARickard RakellPPGWGAssists: Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:19ANACam Fowler: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:50ANACorey Perry: Interference2 min
- P1 17:01TBLErik Condra: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:38ANACorey Perry: Holding2 min
- P2 16:11TBLNikita Kucherov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 6:07TBLLuke Witkowski: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:20TBLBen Bishop: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- OT 0:50TBLTyler Johnson: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Boyle – Drouin6:26
xG 0.61–0.20 (75%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Namestnikov4:49
xG 0.38–0.24 (61%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Namestnikov – Drouin4:51
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Palat3:30
xG 0.03–0.09 (26%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGarrison – Sustr13:35
xG 0.62–0.04 (94%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Coburn – Witkowski7:37
xG 0.42–0.16 (72%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Coburn – Stralman3:45
xG 0.16–0.08 (66%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Rakell11:49
xG 1.30–0.14 (90%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Vermette – Ritchie – Kase8:17
xG 0.26–0.22 (55%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Boll – Cramarossa – Shaw5:14
xG 0.04–0.09 (28%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg9:22
xG 0.14–1.56 (8%)attempts 3–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVatanen – Fowler10:50
xG 0.85–0.16 (84%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Fowler6:13
xG 0.82–0.31 (72%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Holzer – Vatanen3:47
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).