Wed, Jan 18, 2017·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Florida Panthers 3, Edmonton Oilers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 115 | 111 | 13 | 02 | 331 |
| EDM | 213 | 06 | 111 | 11 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:10EDMZack KassianAssists: Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 13:04EDMMark LetestuPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P1 17:13FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Reilly Smith, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 18:35FLAMichael SgarbossaPPAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.45 xG2–2
- P3 14:45FLAGreg McKeggAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 17:01EDMJordan EberleAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- OT 4:57EDMConnor McDavidGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:57FLAJonathan Marchessault: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 11:50FLAJonathan Marchessault: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:17EDMEric Gryba: Holding2 min
- P2 17:22EDMBenoit Pouliot: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sgarbossa won the faceoff against Caggiula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Smith – Marchessault3:54
xG 0.13–0.07 (64%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Jagr – Trocheck – McCann3:46
xG 0.06–0.13 (30%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Sgarbossa12:51
xG 0.18–0.27 (40%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Thornton – McKegg – Thompson5:36
xG 0.01–0.12 (11%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Ekblad14:16
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Yandle – Pysyk2:36
xG 0.09–0.05 (65%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Yandle – Ekblad3:56
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Draisaitl – McDavid17:30
xG 0.65–0.32 (67%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Lucic – Letestu – Kassian2:04
xG 0.18–0.00 (98%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Letestu – Kassian – Khaira2:32
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins14:43
xG 0.35–0.32 (52%)attempts 18–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom19:23
xG 0.82–0.25 (77%)attempts 22–9goals 2–0
- Sekera – Russell17:04
xG 0.51–0.31 (62%)attempts 19–21goals 0–1
- Russell – Klefbom2:11
xG 0.02–0.11 (12%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).