Thu, Jan 19, 2017·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Dallas Stars 0, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 010 | 05 | 08 | 023 |
| NYI | 110 | 016 | 210 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:31NYIJohn TavaresGWGAssists: Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P3 16:54NYIJohn TavaresSHAssists: Nikolay Kulemin · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–2
- P3 19:56NYICalvin de HaanENAssists: Thomas Greiss · Wrist, 0.42 xG0–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:54NYICasey Cizikas: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:32DALAdam Cracknell: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:27DALPatrick Sharp: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:42NYIThomas Hickey: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:42DALRadek Faksa: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:42DALRadek Faksa: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:21DALAdam Cracknell: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:42DALRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:09NYIAlan Quine: Holding2 min
- P3 3:56DALJamie Benn: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 14:59NYIScott Mayfield: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Faksa – Shore8:17
xG 0.44–0.29 (60%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Hudler – Korpikoski – Cracknell2:24
xG 0.00–0.05 (5%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Spezza – Roussel – Seguin5:21
xG 0.13–0.19 (41%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Eaves – Benn – Eakin7:14
xG 0.01–0.39 (4%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Johns11:10
xG 0.64–0.39 (62%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Klingberg3:27
xG 0.21–0.08 (72%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Nemeth6:13
xG 0.14–0.34 (30%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Lee8:37
xG 0.67–0.04 (94%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Kulemin – Cizikas – Prince4:51
xG 0.36–0.08 (81%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Nelson – Strome – Beauvillier6:20
xG 0.22–0.06 (79%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Chimera – Gionta – Quine4:41
xG 0.09–0.05 (64%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Mayfield5:37
xG 0.22–0.01 (94%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Leddy – Pelech9:57
xG 0.47–0.30 (61%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – de Haan14:04
xG 0.55–0.53 (51%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).