Thu, Jan 19, 2017·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Ottawa Senators 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 110 | 111 | 07 | 228 |
| CBJ | 013 | 010 | 019 | 042 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:17OTTKyle TurrisGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Marc Methot · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 16:12OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Chris Wideman, Derick Brassard · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–0
Penalties (12)
- P1 11:10OTTChris Kelly: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:49CBJJosh Anderson: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:34OTTErik Karlsson: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:34CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:26CBJScott Hartnell: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:26OTTDion Phaneuf: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:11CBJJosh Anderson: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:08CBJNick Foligno: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:21CBJRyan Murray: Holding2 min
- P3 14:33OTTMarc Methot: Holding2 min
- P3 15:33OTTMike Condon: Delaying game2 min
- P3 0:00CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Brassard – Smith – Stone9:31
xG 0.29–0.31 (48%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Ryan – Turris – Dzingel8:04
xG 0.25–0.45 (36%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Hoffman – Pageau6:41
xG 0.39–0.77 (34%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Claesson – Ceci2:09
xG 0.23–0.24 (48%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Wideman – Claesson7:07
xG 0.21–0.50 (29%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Ceci12:20
xG 0.24–0.64 (27%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Atkinson – Wennberg5:07
xG 0.60–0.21 (73%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Gagner – Sedlak6:02
xG 0.45–0.20 (69%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Jenner – Saad2:48
xG 0.41–0.21 (66%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Saad – Wennberg7:24
xG 0.26–0.29 (47%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestProut – Murray6:49
xG 0.46–0.35 (57%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Jones – Werenski13:53
xG 0.99–0.89 (53%)attempts 25–18goals 0–0
- Johnson – Savard10:40
xG 0.68–0.72 (49%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).