Thu, Jan 19, 2017·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Washington Capitals 7, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 27 | 49 | 12 | 718 |
| STL | 011 | 18 | 26 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:37WSHAndre BurakovskyAssists: Daniel Winnik, Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 7:41WSHJay BeagleAssists: Daniel Winnik, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 0:19STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Paul Stastny, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 3:47WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 7:33WSHBrett ConnollyGWGAssists: Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–1
- P2 7:44WSHMarcus JohanssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–1
- P2 13:30WSHJustin WilliamsPPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.10 xG6–1
- P3 6:20WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: T.J. Oshie, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.06 xG7–1
- P3 10:00STLAlexander SteenAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Carl Gunnarsson · Wrist, 0.12 xG7–2
- P3 16:25STLAlexander SteenAssists: Colton Parayko, Jaden Schwartz · Tip-in, 0.06 xG7–3
Penalties (3)
- P2 11:44STLDavid Perron: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:54WSHBrooks Orpik: Holding2 min
- P3 0:06STLJaden Schwartz: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Connolly – Burakovsky12:40
xG 0.65–0.26 (71%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Williams – Johansson – Kuznetsov12:40
xG 0.29–0.31 (48%)attempts 2–12goals 1–0
- Winnik – Beagle – Wilson11:04
xG 0.18–0.53 (25%)attempts 4–10goals 1–1
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom13:49
xG 0.16–0.66 (20%)attempts 6–12goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Orpik – Orlov18:15
xG 0.40–0.50 (44%)attempts 11–13goals 2–1
- Niskanen – Alzner16:36
xG 0.45–0.57 (44%)attempts 5–14goals 1–1
- Chorney – Schmidt15:43
xG 0.42–0.70 (38%)attempts 5–17goals 2–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Stastny – Schwartz12:41
xG 0.63–0.25 (72%)attempts 15–5goals 3–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves7:19
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Perron – Tarasenko – Jaskin3:03
xG 0.16–0.02 (86%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Reaves – Berglund – Fabbri3:24
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo18:14
xG 0.57–0.15 (79%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Gunnarsson – Bortuzzo7:21
xG 0.28–0.08 (78%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Gunnarsson7:40
xG 0.40–0.21 (66%)attempts 7–3goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).