Fri, Jan 20, 2017·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Pittsburgh Penguins 7, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 112 | 417 | 212 | 741 |
| CAR | 013 | 09 | 16 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:31PITTrevor DaleyUnassisted · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 6:59PITCarl HagelinGWGAssists: Cameron Gaunce, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.46 xG2–0
- P2 12:28PITConor ShearyAssists: Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–0
- P2 12:46PITChris KunitzAssists: Eric Fehr, Scott Wilson · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–0
- P2 17:29PITPhil KesselPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Justin Schultz · Snap, 0.09 xG5–0
- P3 6:37PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Jake Guentzel, Justin Schultz · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG6–0
- P3 7:09CARViktor StalbergSHAssists: Ron Hainsey, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.21 xG6–1
- P3 9:05PITConor ShearyAssists: Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.27 xG7–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:27PITIan Cole: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:15PITIan Cole: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:14CARJeff Skinner: Embellishment2 min
- P2 13:53PITJustin Schultz: Holding2 min
- P2 16:36CARJeff Skinner: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P3 6:37CARCam Ward: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Bonino – Hagelin11:49
xG 1.16–0.49 (70%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Guentzel11:36
xG 0.70–0.18 (79%)attempts 14–13goals 2–0
- Crosby – Rust – Sheary11:35
xG 1.00–0.49 (67%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- Kunitz – Fehr – Wilson6:24
xG 0.60–0.39 (61%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Gaunce11:16
xG 1.23–0.20 (86%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Daley – Maatta2:02
xG 0.60–0.09 (87%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Cole – Schultz16:33
xG 0.78–0.43 (64%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – McGinn – Lindholm12:08
xG 0.66–0.46 (59%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Skinner – Rask – Ryan5:24
xG 0.22–0.28 (44%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Aho – Ryan4:12
xG 0.01–0.09 (14%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Rask – McGinn – Lindholm3:17
xG 0.07–0.21 (26%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce17:48
xG 0.51–0.43 (54%)attempts 15–15goals 0–2
- Hainsey – Faulk16:24
xG 0.87–1.30 (40%)attempts 21–16goals 0–1
- Tennyson – Hanifin12:43
xG 0.29–2.06 (12%)attempts 9–23goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).