Fri, Jan 20, 2017·Prudential Center, Newark
Montréal Canadiens 3, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 110 | 09 | 27 | 326 |
| NJD | 13 | 05 | 09 | 117 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:00NJDSteven SantiniAssists: PA Parenteau, Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 5:14MTLAlex GalchenyukPPAssists: Alexander Radulov, Nathan Beaulieu · Slap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 3:01MTLShea WeberPPGWGAssists: Alexander Radulov, Alex Galchenyuk · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 4:23MTLMax PaciorettyPPAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Alexander Radulov · Snap, 0.08 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:46NJDMiles Wood: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 7:23NJDBen Lovejoy: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:06MTLAlexei Emelin: Holding2 min
- P2 1:24MTLAlexander Radulov: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:12NJDKyle Quincey: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:28NJDKarl Stollery: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P3 0:28MTLTorrey Mitchell: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:13NJDBlake Coleman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Coleman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Pacioretty – Danault10:23
xG 0.15–0.00 (98%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Flynn – de la Rose7:27
xG 0.07–0.03 (72%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Byron – Lehkonen7:44
xG 0.10–0.07 (60%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Shaw – Galchenyuk – Andrighetto7:51
xG 0.23–0.29 (44%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Beaulieu13:28
xG 0.31–0.10 (76%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Weber – Emelin12:26
xG 0.19–0.04 (83%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Petry – Barberio2:11
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJosefson – Bennett – Zacha6:16
xG 0.19–0.06 (76%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Zajac – Palmieri6:09
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Smith-Pelly – Coleman – Wood5:09
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–9goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Henrique – Hall6:38
xG 0.01–0.10 (8%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Santini2:56
xG 0.15–0.00 (97%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Stollery – Santini8:39
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 3–9goals 1–0
- Lovejoy – Severson2:21
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).