Fri, Jan 20, 2017·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Nashville Predators 3, Edmonton Oilers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 012 | 115 | 115 | 02 | 2 | 344 |
| EDM | 08 | 110 | 16 | 08 | 0 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 17:12NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–0
- P2 17:53EDMMatt HendricksAssists: Zack Kassian · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 6:55NSHRyan EllisAssists: Ryan Johansen, Matt Irwin · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 15:31EDMMilan LucicPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. EDM Mark Letestu stopped
- 2. NSH Ryan Ellis scored
- 3. EDM Patrick Maroon stopped
- 4. NSH James Neal scored
Penalties (17)
- P1 5:07EDMPatrick Maroon: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:00EDMMatt Benning: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 12:20EDMPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:20NSHAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:33NSHAnthony Bitetto: Holding2 min
- P2 1:19NSHMike Ribeiro: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 4:37EDMMatt Hendricks: Elbowing2 min
- P2 4:37EDMMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:37NSHCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:46EDMPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:46NSHRyan Ellis: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:02EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:09EDMMilan Lucic: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:05EDMMatt Hendricks: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:05NSHCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:11NSHMatt Irwin: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:45NSHAustin Watson: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Caggiula won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson9:19
xG 1.24–0.24 (84%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Neal – Jarnkrok7:28
xG 0.38–0.17 (70%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Fisher – Smith – Watson9:30
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- McLeod – Grant – Zolnierczyk5:19
xG 0.12–0.08 (60%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm12:40
xG 0.80–0.04 (95%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Ellis – Irwin15:53
xG 0.90–0.35 (72%)attempts 24–13goals 0–0
- Weber – Bitetto7:44
xG 0.35–0.40 (47%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Slepyshev – Caggiula7:24
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Letestu – Kassian3:40
xG 0.16–0.14 (52%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Maroon – Draisaitl – McDavid13:53
xG 0.25–0.36 (42%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins9:09
xG 0.18–0.38 (33%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDavidson – Benning9:17
xG 0.25–0.09 (73%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Sekera – Russell11:50
xG 0.27–0.14 (66%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Larsson – Klefbom15:14
xG 0.25–1.68 (13%)attempts 7–27goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).