Sat, Jan 21, 2017·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
St. Louis Blues 3, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 14 | 025 | 28 | 337 |
| WPG | 18 | 111 | 310 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:47WPGBryan LittlePPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Mark Scheifele · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 13:18STLKevin ShattenkirkPPAssists: Paul Stastny, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 1:27WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 2:10WPGBryan LittlePPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 6:21WPGMark ScheifeleGWGAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–4
- P3 11:05WPGNikolaj EhlersPPAssists: Nic Petan, Jacob Trouba · Slap, 0.05 xG1–5
- P3 12:11STLPaul StastnyAssists: Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–5
- P3 13:43STLKevin ShattenkirkAssists: Alexander Steen, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:37STLJaden Schwartz: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:17STLDavid Perron: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:43WPGNic Petan: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:39STLJoel Edmundson: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:49WPGJacob Trouba: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:50WPGDrew Stafford: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:19WPGMark Stuart: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:52STLDmitrij Jaskin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:25STLPaul Stastny: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Lehtera – Jaskin7:35
xG 0.39–0.28 (59%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves6:28
xG 0.01–0.08 (16%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Berglund – Tarasenko – Fabbri11:18
xG 0.45–0.76 (37%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Steen – Stastny – Schwartz9:55
xG 0.41–0.83 (33%)attempts 9–11goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Pietrangelo2:55
xG 0.31–0.01 (97%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Edmundson10:30
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Edmundson2:08
xG 0.12–0.09 (57%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Copp – Ehlers4:10
xG 0.57–0.17 (77%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Matthias – Lowry – Armia8:54
xG 0.38–0.19 (67%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Little – Perreault10:31
xG 0.75–0.73 (50%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Thorburn – Copp – Petan4:30
xG 0.03–0.02 (54%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Morrissey15:53
xG 1.17–0.76 (61%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Stuart – Postma8:01
xG 0.08–0.13 (37%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Trouba17:08
xG 0.29–0.61 (32%)attempts 7–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).