Sat, Jan 21, 2017·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 013 | 29 | 015 | 237 |
| CBJ | 212 | 02 | 16 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:49CBJMarkus HannikainenAssists: Josh Anderson, William Karlsson · Snap, 0.40 xG0–1
- P1 14:26CBJScott HartnellAssists: Dalton Prout, Scott Harrington · Slap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 9:05CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Brett Pesce · Snap, 0.39 xG1–2
- P2 15:27CARJustin FaulkAssists: Ty Rattie · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 10:25CBJScott HartnellGWGAssists: Sam Gagner, Dalton Prout · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 19:02CBJZach Werenski: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:46CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:27CBJMarkus Hannikainen: Holding2 min
- P2 18:21CARRyan Murphy: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:21CARRyan Murphy: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:30CBJAlexander Wennberg: Interference2 min
- P3 6:11CBJDalton Prout: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:16CBJSam Gagner: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Skinner – Rattie – Rask9:47
xG 0.35–0.36 (49%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Stempniak – Aho – Ryan5:49
xG 0.09–0.11 (45%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Staal – McGinn – Lindholm8:53
xG 0.45–0.58 (44%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- McClement – Stalberg – Nordstrom5:28
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Slavin – Pesce13:10
xG 0.26–0.30 (46%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Faulk16:19
xG 0.49–0.69 (41%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Dahlbeck – Murphy9:15
xG 0.31–1.11 (22%)attempts 6–10goals 0–2
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Anderson – Hannikainen8:19
xG 1.03–0.29 (78%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Jenner – Saad6:10
xG 0.56–0.35 (62%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Gagner – Sedlak8:10
xG 0.37–0.18 (67%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner2:39
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestProut – Harrington10:44
xG 0.94–0.16 (86%)attempts 9–7goals 3–0
- Johnson – Murray11:54
xG 0.50–0.40 (56%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Jones – Werenski15:02
xG 0.41–0.57 (41%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).