Sat, Jan 21, 2017·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Los Angeles Kings 2, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 014 | 013 | 29 | 236 |
| NYI | 18 | 110 | 218 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:30NYIJason ChimeraAssists: Stephen Gionta · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 7:09NYIAnders LeePPAssists: John Tavares, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.49 xG0–2
- P3 0:37LAKJeff CarterPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 4:06LAKDrew DoughtyAssists: Andy Andreoff, Trevor Lewis · Snap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 9:31NYIAnders LeePPGWGAssists: Nick Leddy, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 19:16NYIJohn TavaresENAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Thomas Hickey · Wrist, 0.71 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P2 6:19LAKJake Muzzin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:13LAKNic Dowd: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:00NYIBrock Nelson: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:40LAKJake Muzzin: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:02NYIJohn Tavares: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:20LAKDerek Forbort: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 18:51LAKDrew Doughty: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Brown – Pearson11:43
xG 0.94–0.55 (63%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Lewis – Dowd – Andreoff6:23
xG 0.36–0.05 (88%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Gaborik – Kopitar – King15:07
xG 1.01–0.89 (53%)attempts 20–19goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Nolan – Andreoff2:22
xG 0.05–0.22 (20%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Forbort17:05
xG 0.94–0.71 (57%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Gravel12:26
xG 0.57–0.43 (57%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Muzzin – Doughty20:15
xG 1.01–1.26 (45%)attempts 19–28goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Gionta – Quine8:25
xG 0.43–0.37 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Kulemin – Cizikas – Prince9:35
xG 0.36–0.50 (42%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee13:33
xG 0.62–0.77 (45%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Nelson – Strome – Beauvillier12:45
xG 0.49–0.78 (38%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – de Haan17:56
xG 1.34–0.88 (60%)attempts 21–17goals 0–0
- Hickey – Leddy2:05
xG 0.24–0.03 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Hickey – Mayfield12:54
xG 0.43–0.65 (40%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).