Sat, Jan 21, 2017·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New Jersey Devils 4, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 114 | 211 | 14 | 429 |
| PHI | 110 | 015 | 011 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:11NJDPavel ZachaAssists: Jacob Josefson, Kyle Quincey · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 10:49PHINick CousinsAssists: Ivan Provorov, Mark Streit · Deflected, 0.27 xG1–1
- P2 15:51NJDKyle PalmieriPPGWGAssists: PA Parenteau, Michael Cammalleri · Slap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 19:12NJDMiles WoodAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Steven Santini · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 4:26NJDMiles WoodPPAssists: Taylor Hall, Karl Stollery · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–1
Penalties (15)
- P1 2:39NJDKarl Stollery: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:49NJDMiles Wood: Interference2 min
- P1 11:42PHINick Cousins: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 15:07NJDMiles Wood: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:07PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:07PHIWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:53PHIMichael Del Zotto: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:27NJDDamon Severson: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:59NJDMiles Wood: Holding2 min
- P2 15:34PHIRadko Gudas: Clipping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:34PHIWayne Simmonds: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 3:31PHIPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:43PHIChris VandeVelde: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:03NJDJacob Josefson: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:11NJDJon Merrill: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Palmieri – Hall6:59
xG 0.34–0.13 (72%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Josefson – Zacha5:06
xG 0.14–0.12 (52%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Fiddler – Gazdic – Kalinin4:05
xG 0.08–0.10 (43%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Henrique – Wood6:37
xG 0.17–0.24 (41%)attempts 4–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Merrill11:59
xG 0.46–0.30 (61%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
- Stollery – Santini6:18
xG 0.13–0.05 (71%)attempts 3–9goals 1–0
- Stollery – Severson2:06
xG 0.04–0.04 (48%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Schenn – Konecny6:22
xG 0.24–0.11 (69%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Giroux – Read – Raffl7:05
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 18–3goals 0–0
- Voracek – Schenn – Konecny2:39
xG 0.10–0.12 (45%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Voracek – Cousins – Couturier7:11
xG 0.25–0.30 (46%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Gostisbehere9:55
xG 0.45–0.11 (81%)attempts 20–6goals 0–1
- Del Zotto – Gudas2:23
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Streit – Gostisbehere2:15
xG 0.01–0.04 (26%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).