Sat, Jan 21, 2017·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Washington Capitals 4, Dallas Stars 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 19 | 04 | 28 | 11 | 422 |
| DAL | 115 | 210 | 010 | 00 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:17WSHAndre BurakovskyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 6:26DALAdam CracknellAssists: Jordie Benn, Dan Hamhuis · Slap, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 6:47DALPatrick EavesAssists: Patrik Nemeth, Curtis McKenzie · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–2
- P2 15:59DALJamie BennPPAssists: Patrick Eaves, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.46 xG1–3
- P3 3:18WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Matt Niskanen, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 5:26WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Matt Niskanen, Nicklas Backstrom · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–3
- OT 0:19WSHJay BeagleGWGAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 2:41WSHMatt Niskanen: Delaying game2 min
- P1 3:19WSHDaniel Winnik: Delaying game2 min
- P1 11:51DALBrett Ritchie: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:51WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:54WSHDaniel Winnik: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:54DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:57DALCurtis McKenzie: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:57WSHJustin Williams: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:01WSHBrett Connolly: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:39WSHDmitry Orlov: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:39WSHDmitry Orlov: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:15DALCurtis McKenzie: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:49DALAntoine Roussel: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:29WSHTaylor Chorney: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Backstrom12:01
xG 0.49–0.41 (54%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Winnik – Beagle – Wilson8:08
xG 0.16–0.09 (64%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Williams – Johansson – Kuznetsov11:17
xG 0.31–0.39 (45%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Eller – Connolly – Burakovsky8:44
xG 0.49–0.85 (36%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Schmidt5:36
xG 0.68–0.10 (87%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Orpik – Orlov10:21
xG 0.48–0.36 (57%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Orlov4:21
xG 0.02–0.01 (59%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Roussel – Seguin7:28
xG 0.73–0.19 (80%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Eaves – Benn – Eakin10:10
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Cracknell – McKenzie – Ritchie7:31
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Sharp – Faksa – Shore11:04
xG 0.37–0.47 (44%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell15:06
xG 0.90–0.35 (72%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Johns – Nemeth13:38
xG 0.96–0.44 (68%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Benn10:50
xG 0.40–0.42 (49%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).