Sat, Jan 21, 2017·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Edmonton Oilers 7, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 38 | 315 | 18 | 731 |
| CGY | 013 | 116 | 212 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:17EDMAnton SlepyshevAssists: Drake Caggiula · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 5:22EDMMark LetestuAssists: Zack Kassian, Oscar Klefbom · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 5:58EDMJordan EberleAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 3:57EDMConnor McDavidGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–0
- P2 12:24EDMJordan EberleAssists: Matt Benning, Benoit Pouliot · Tip-in, 0.12 xG5–0
- P2 15:55CGYMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Michael Frolik · Tip-in, 0.14 xG5–1
- P2 16:53EDMOscar KlefbomPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle · Slap, 0.07 xG6–1
- P3 0:26CGYSean MonahanSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG6–2
- P3 15:49CGYLance BoumaAssists: TJ Brodie, Dennis Wideman · Tip-in, 0.06 xG6–3
- P3 19:25EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsENAssists: Jordan Eberle, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.57 xG7–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 11:08CGYDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:08EDMMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:03EDMAdam Larsson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:54CGYSam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:28EDMMatt Benning: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:43CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:27CGYMichael Frolik: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:27EDMConnor McDavid: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:27CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:27CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Misconduct10 min
- P3 5:07CGYSean Monahan: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:57CGYTJ Brodie: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:01EDMAndrej Sekera: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:49CGYMatt Stajan: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:49EDMAndrej Sekera: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins8:16
xG 0.44–0.30 (59%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
- Hendricks – Letestu – Kassian7:15
xG 0.09–0.13 (40%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Lucic – Slepyshev – Caggiula8:57
xG 0.14–0.27 (34%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
- Maroon – Draisaitl – McDavid10:04
xG 0.15–0.36 (29%)attempts 6–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Davidson – Benning10:29
xG 0.33–0.31 (52%)attempts 9–14goals 3–0
- Larsson – Klefbom13:59
xG 0.40–0.39 (51%)attempts 11–19goals 2–0
- Sekera – Russell16:43
xG 0.08–0.99 (7%)attempts 4–22goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk8:35
xG 0.32–0.04 (88%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Gaudreau – Bennett8:46
xG 0.18–0.10 (63%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Versteeg – Brouwer – Monahan8:13
xG 0.20–0.20 (51%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Stajan – Bouma – Ferland5:18
xG 0.15–0.39 (28%)attempts 5–4goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton11:14
xG 0.64–0.22 (74%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Engelland – Jokipakka9:53
xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 8–7goals 0–2
- Wideman – Brodie15:17
xG 0.37–0.38 (49%)attempts 17–10goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).