Sun, Jan 22, 2017·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Boston Bruins 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 012 | 122 | 011 | 145 |
| PIT | 012 | 212 | 312 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:18PITBryan RustAssists: Sidney Crosby, Conor Sheary · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 9:06PITConor ShearyGWGAssists: Bryan Rust, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 13:49BOSDavid KrejciAssists: David Pastrnak, Matt Beleskey · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 1:40PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Chad Ruhwedel, Evgeni Malkin · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 2:59PITConor ShearyAssists: Bryan Rust, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–4
- P3 4:37PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Evgeni Malkin · Backhand, 0.31 xG1–5
Penalties (9)
- P2 9:35PITJake Guentzel: Boarding2 min
- P2 17:22PITCameron Gaunce: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:31BOSMatt Beleskey: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:50PITCarl Hagelin: Holding2 min
- P3 8:04PITEvgeni Malkin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:04PITCameron Gaunce: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:04BOSJoe Morrow: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:22BOSMatt Beleskey: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:22PITScott Wilson: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Vatrano12:34
xG 0.65–0.29 (69%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Backes – Nash – Schaller7:20
xG 0.53–0.22 (70%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Moore – Spooner – Czarnik2:46
xG 0.03–0.04 (41%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Krejci – Schaller – Pastrnak2:00
xG 0.04–0.08 (36%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Krug15:13
xG 0.75–0.60 (55%)attempts 22–12goals 0–2
- Chara – Carlo17:22
xG 0.51–0.40 (56%)attempts 21–9goals 0–2
- Liles – Morrow14:00
xG 0.27–1.25 (18%)attempts 14–20goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Fehr – Wilson7:49
xG 0.63–0.11 (85%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Sheary12:18
xG 0.71–0.35 (67%)attempts 11–14goals 3–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Guentzel12:47
xG 0.74–0.45 (62%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Kessel – Bonino – Hagelin9:54
xG 0.26–0.49 (35%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Ruhwedel12:33
xG 0.93–0.28 (77%)attempts 16–16goals 2–1
- Cole – Schultz16:32
xG 0.73–0.24 (75%)attempts 13–15goals 2–0
- Daley – Maatta2:33
xG 0.02–0.14 (12%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).