Sun, Jan 22, 2017·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Philadelphia Flyers 3, New York Islanders 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 015 | 119 | 18 | 15 | 347 |
| NYI | 18 | 113 | 013 | 04 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:25NYINick LeddyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 4:47NYIAlan QuineAssists: Shane Prince, Dennis Seidenberg · Backhand, 0.31 xG0–2
- P2 14:10PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Brayden Schenn, Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 1:47PHIIvan ProvorovAssists: Brayden Schenn, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- OT 3:20PHIClaude GirouxGWGAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Jakub Voracek · Wrap-around, 0.21 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 19:07NYICasey Cizikas: Interference2 min
- P2 0:35NYINikolay Kulemin: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:10PHIIvan Provorov: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:17PHISean Couturier: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:07NYICal Clutterbuck: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVandeVelde – Bellemare – Lyubimov8:01
xG 0.30–0.06 (83%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Read – Cousins – Couturier11:57
xG 0.77–0.71 (52%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Schenn – Konecny11:50
xG 0.61–0.70 (47%)attempts 12–11goals 2–1
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl13:32
xG 0.54–1.48 (27%)attempts 15–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gostisbehere16:09
xG 0.63–0.19 (77%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Streit – Gudas15:00
xG 0.97–1.47 (40%)attempts 18–23goals 1–1
- MacDonald – Provorov15:30
xG 0.73–1.27 (36%)attempts 18–14goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Lee11:06
xG 1.95–0.69 (74%)attempts 16–15goals 1–1
- Chimera – Prince – Quine8:07
xG 0.46–0.44 (51%)attempts 5–17goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Kulemin – Cizikas11:41
xG 0.19–0.36 (35%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Nelson – Strome – Beauvillier9:19
xG 0.26–0.45 (37%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Pelech15:39
xG 1.03–0.80 (56%)attempts 15–19goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Hickey15:03
xG 1.15–0.95 (55%)attempts 13–22goals 0–1
- Seidenberg – de Haan14:10
xG 0.74–0.57 (56%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).