Mon, Jan 23, 2017·Madison Square Garden, New York
Los Angeles Kings 2, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 014 | 18 | 116 | 238 |
| NYR | 15 | 14 | 18 | 317 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:31NYRBrandon PirriUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 13:28NYRMatt PuempelAssists: Derek Stepan, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 18:01LAKJordan NolanAssists: Andy Andreoff, Drew Doughty · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 6:40NYRMats ZuccarelloGWGAssists: J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 19:58LAKKyle CliffordAssists: Jake Muzzin, Jordan Nolan · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:04NYRRick Nash: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:18LAKBrayden McNabb: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:18NYRKevin Klein: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:44LAKDevin Setoguchi: Interference2 min
- P2 3:58LAKJordan Nolan: Holding2 min
- P2 14:11LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:11NYRMika Zibanejad: Embellishment2 min
- P3 4:54NYRRyan McDonagh: Holding2 min
- P3 5:31LAKJeff Carter: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Brown – Pearson7:02
xG 0.64–0.01 (98%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Kopitar – King14:00
xG 0.76–0.36 (68%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Setoguchi – Lewis – Andreoff5:23
xG 0.27–0.05 (84%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Clifford – Nolan – Shore6:07
xG 0.25–0.21 (55%)attempts 5–3goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Forbort11:44
xG 0.92–0.33 (73%)attempts 17–7goals 1–1
- Doughty – McNabb10:54
xG 0.87–0.32 (73%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- McNabb – Gravel4:12
xG 0.47–0.16 (74%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Lindberg – Buchnevich2:53
xG 0.17–0.07 (71%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Stepan – Zuccarello – Puempel5:31
xG 0.18–0.09 (66%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Pirri – Lindberg – Puempel4:53
xG 0.11–0.04 (72%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello5:21
xG 0.06–0.20 (22%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Clendening – Skjei9:11
xG 0.32–0.28 (53%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Klein – McDonagh2:11
xG 0.01–0.22 (6%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
- Klein – Holden13:55
xG 0.21–0.46 (31%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).