Mon, Jan 23, 2017·Verizon Center, Washington
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Washington Capitals 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 16 | 08 | 012 | 126 |
| WSH | 212 | 24 | 29 | 625 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:39CARJordan StaalPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 11:49WSHDmitry OrlovPPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Andre Burakovsky · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 17:05WSHJustin WilliamsGWGAssists: Karl Alzner, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 8:06WSHDmitry OrlovAssists: Brett Connolly, Andre Burakovsky · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 18:40WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Karl Alzner, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–4
- P3 13:30WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–5
- P3 17:13WSHLars EllerAssists: Nate Schmidt, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:33WSHT.J. Oshie: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 10:16CARJustin Faulk: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 19:30WSHJay Beagle: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:32CARJeff Skinner: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 14:31WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:48WSHNicklas Backstrom: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:02CARMatt Tennyson: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:02WSHLars Eller: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00WSHTaylor Chorney: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:00CARJoakim Nordstrom: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beagle won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Rattie – Rask10:09
xG 0.38–0.25 (61%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Stempniak – McGinn – Ryan11:39
xG 0.57–0.47 (55%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Staal – Lindholm – Aho9:50
xG 0.17–0.13 (58%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Stalberg – Nordstrom – Teravainen8:08
xG 0.24–0.34 (41%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce12:49
xG 0.49–0.18 (74%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Tennyson – Hanifin14:07
xG 0.63–0.44 (59%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Faulk16:00
xG 0.34–0.66 (34%)attempts 15–13goals 0–2
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Johansson – Kuznetsov11:19
xG 0.42–0.36 (54%)attempts 9–11goals 2–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom11:36
xG 0.40–0.45 (47%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
- Eller – Connolly – Burakovsky10:27
xG 0.35–0.46 (43%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Winnik – Beagle – Wilson8:47
xG 0.12–0.30 (28%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Orlov16:44
xG 0.78–0.49 (61%)attempts 18–13goals 2–0
- Niskanen – Alzner14:41
xG 0.39–0.23 (63%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
- Chorney – Schmidt11:11
xG 0.13–0.79 (14%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).