Mon, Jan 23, 2017·Pepsi Center, Denver
San Jose Sharks 5, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 19 | 04 | 413 | 526 |
| COL | 09 | 14 | 115 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:00SJSBrent BurnsAssists: David Schlemko, Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 10:02COLJarome IginlaPPAssists: Mikhail Grigorenko, Nikita Zadorov · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 2:53SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Mikkel Boedker · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 5:57SJSPatrick MarleauGWGAssists: Logan Couture, Brent Burns · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 10:35SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Joe Pavelski, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–1
- P3 11:57COLAndreas MartinsenAssists: Nikita Zadorov, Blake Comeau · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 16:23SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Backhand, 0.09 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:47COLPatrick Wiercioch: Interference2 min
- P2 8:52SJSMelker Karlsson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:26SJSPatrick Marleau: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:39COLNikita Zadorov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 13:15COLFedor Tyutin: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 17:27SJSJoe Thornton: Interference2 min
- P3 19:09COLJoe Colborne: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Soderberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Couture – Boedker3:25
xG 0.37–0.02 (95%)attempts 5–2goals 3–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Karlsson3:58
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Couture – Boedker – Labanc3:33
xG 0.01–0.01 (46%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Ward – Tierney – Karlsson4:43
xG 0.03–0.04 (48%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun17:22
xG 0.58–0.23 (72%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Martin – Burns12:57
xG 0.40–0.33 (55%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Schlemko – Dillon12:16
xG 0.33–0.68 (33%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Soderberg – Martinsen3:08
xG 0.29–0.04 (89%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Iginla – Mitchell – Colborne3:56
xG 0.38–0.17 (70%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Nieto – Landeskog5:08
xG 0.18–0.09 (67%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Nieto – Landeskog – MacKinnon5:20
xG 0.09–0.02 (82%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Zadorov11:30
xG 0.68–0.31 (69%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Tyutin – Wiercioch3:32
xG 0.25–0.10 (71%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Zadorov3:09
xG 0.06–0.07 (47%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).