Tue, Jan 24, 2017·TD Garden, Boston
Detroit Red Wings 3, Boston Bruins 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 17 | 29 | 08 | 02 | 326 |
| BOS | 221 | 012 | 114 | 12 | 449 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:39BOSKevan MillerAssists: Tim Schaller, Dominic Moore · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 10:59DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Mike Green, Niklas Kronwall · Snap, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 17:34BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: Ryan Spooner, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–2
- P2 6:25DETMike GreenAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Gustav Nyquist · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 10:51DETTomas TatarAssists: Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 8:20BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Torey Krug · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–3
- OT 4:13BOSDavid PastrnakGWGAssists: David Krejci, Brandon Carlo · Slap, 0.10 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:53DETNiklas Kronwall: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:03DETJonathan Ericsson: Broken stick2 min · PPG
- P2 1:15BOSZdeno Chara: Interference2 min
- P3 12:12BOSTorey Krug: Embellishment2 min
- P3 12:12DETAndreas Athanasiou: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Tatar8:31
xG 0.46–0.14 (77%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Helm6:47
xG 0.27–0.05 (84%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Miller – Glendening – Mantha2:02
xG 0.06–0.05 (57%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Tatar – Athanasiou2:24
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ouellet3:03
xG 0.18–0.04 (80%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Jensen – DeKeyser2:24
xG 0.10–0.01 (91%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Jensen2:11
xG 0.03–0.10 (20%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak12:46
xG 1.23–0.13 (91%)attempts 24–6goals 1–0
- Backes – Krejci – Vatrano14:48
xG 0.63–0.42 (60%)attempts 17–9goals 0–2
- Beleskey – Nash – Spooner7:26
xG 0.51–0.45 (53%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Moore – Hayes – Schaller7:33
xG 0.12–0.08 (60%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Carlo18:14
xG 1.04–0.39 (73%)attempts 28–8goals 0–2
- McQuaid – Krug14:47
xG 0.86–0.39 (69%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Chara – Miller2:30
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).