Tue, Jan 24, 2017·Centre Bell, Montreal
Calgary Flames 1, Montréal Canadiens 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 011 | 011 | 19 | 131 |
| MTL | 17 | 26 | 27 | 520 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:17MTLAndrew ShawAssists: Sven Andrighetto, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 4:53MTLTomas PlekanecSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 9:02MTLAlexander RadulovPPAssists: Nathan Beaulieu, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P3 8:08MTLDaniel CarrAssists: Torrey Mitchell, Carey Price · Slap, 0.10 xG0–4
- P3 16:07MTLAlexander RadulovPPAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Andrew Shaw · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–5
- P3 19:58CGYSam BennettPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:40CGYMichael Frolik: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:42MTLPhillip Danault: Interference2 min
- P2 4:39MTLAlexei Emelin: Holding2 min
- P2 7:53CGYMatt Stajan: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:42MTLJeff Petry: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:55MTLJacob de la Rose: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:29MTLSven Andrighetto: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:29CGYDeryk Engelland: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:25CGYBrett Kulak: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 19:07MTLAlexander Radulov: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Gaudreau – Monahan3:40
xG 0.49–0.16 (75%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Stajan – Bouma – Chiasson5:31
xG 0.19–0.03 (85%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Ferland3:53
xG 0.12–0.08 (60%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk5:45
xG 0.10–0.07 (58%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton15:35
xG 0.72–0.51 (58%)attempts 19–15goals 0–1
- Wideman – Brodie13:05
xG 0.32–0.20 (61%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Engelland – Kulak14:05
xG 0.14–0.33 (30%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Shaw – Flynn – Andrighetto8:53
xG 0.34–0.31 (52%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Byron – Lehkonen8:22
xG 0.17–0.15 (53%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Mitchell – de la Rose – Carr8:22
xG 0.10–0.16 (40%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0
- Radulov – Pacioretty – Danault12:47
xG 0.46–0.57 (45%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarberio – Redmond11:59
xG 0.24–0.10 (71%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Weber – Emelin12:28
xG 0.36–0.26 (58%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Emelin – Petry2:55
xG 0.08–0.04 (67%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).