Tue, Jan 24, 2017·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Washington Capitals 0, Ottawa Senators 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 09 | 013 | 09 | 031 |
| OTT | 210 | 113 | 011 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:46OTTChris KellySHGWGAssists: Tom Pyatt, Fredrik Claesson · Backhand, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 4:10OTTBobby RyanAssists: Fredrik Claesson, Derick Brassard · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 11:57OTTZack SmithPPAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Chris Wideman · Deflected, 0.17 xG0–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:36OTTDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
- P1 2:01WSHAlex Ovechkin: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:09OTTKyle Turris: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:54WSHBrett Connolly: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:18WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:07WSHAlex Ovechkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:07OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:58OTTRyan Dzingel: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:05WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 8:43OTTZack Smith: Holding2 min
- P3 14:09OTTZack Smith: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:38OTTChris Wideman: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kelly won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Johansson – Kuznetsov8:40
xG 0.16–0.03 (86%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Eller – Connolly – Burakovsky6:20
xG 0.13–0.27 (32%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom10:47
xG 0.26–0.42 (38%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Winnik – Wilson – Stephenson4:25
xG 0.05–0.43 (11%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner7:51
xG 0.32–0.03 (91%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Orlov2:19
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Schmidt2:06
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Lazar – Bailey5:04
xG 0.43–0.15 (75%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Brassard – Smith – Stone8:38
xG 0.28–0.09 (77%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Ryan – Turris – Dzingel8:26
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Kelly – Pyatt – Pageau10:22
xG 0.18–0.23 (44%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Claesson9:21
xG 0.65–0.15 (82%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Ceci12:28
xG 0.67–0.30 (69%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson12:44
xG 0.10–0.36 (22%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).