Tue, Jan 24, 2017·United Center, Chicago
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 110 | 012 | 414 | 536 |
| CHI | 111 | 111 | 014 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:23CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Richard Panik, Ryan Hartman · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 18:35TBLBrian BoyleAssists: Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 1:26CHIDuncan KeithAssists: Artemi Panarin, Jonathan Toews · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 2:47TBLNikita NesterovAssists: Brian Boyle · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 6:14TBLTyler JohnsonGWGAssists: Alex Killorn, Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 6:44TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Alex Killorn, Andrei Vasilevskiy · Tip-in, 0.25 xG4–2
- P3 17:55TBLNikita KucherovENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.73 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:18TBLJake Dotchin: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:19TBLNikita Nesterov: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:23TBLCedric Paquette: Misconduct10 min
- P2 3:55CHIMichal Kempny: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:23TBLAlex Killorn: Holding2 min
- P3 11:16CHIRyan Hartman: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Anisimov won the faceoff against Namestnikov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Johnson – Brown6:57
xG 0.46–0.04 (92%)attempts 8–2goals 2–0
- Filppula – Boyle – Drouin9:48
xG 0.65–0.52 (56%)attempts 14–14goals 2–1
- Palat – Kucherov – Namestnikov9:09
xG 0.30–0.30 (50%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Dumont – Bournival – Paquette6:59
xG 0.08–0.28 (22%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Dotchin10:41
xG 0.51–0.16 (76%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Stralman – Hedman13:27
xG 0.77–0.45 (63%)attempts 15–12goals 3–1
- Nesterov – Sustr13:00
xG 0.50–0.32 (61%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Kane – Panarin11:54
xG 0.41–0.35 (54%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Hossa – Hinostroza – Kero10:29
xG 0.10–0.09 (51%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Rasmussen – Schmaltz6:37
xG 0.12–0.23 (35%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Toews – Panik – Hartman9:13
xG 0.43–1.14 (27%)attempts 11–20goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – van Riemsdyk13:19
xG 0.63–0.42 (60%)attempts 10–11goals 0–2
- Seabrook – Kempny6:36
xG 0.42–0.36 (54%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Keith – Seabrook3:19
xG 0.10–0.05 (66%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).