Wed, Jan 25, 2017·Madison Square Garden, New York
Philadelphia Flyers 2, New York Rangers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 08 | 08 | 210 | 226 |
| NYR | 016 | 011 | 07 | 034 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 6:09PHIWayne SimmondsPPGWGAssists: Brayden Schenn, Jakub Voracek · Backhand, 0.27 xG1–0
- P3 9:45PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Sean Couturier, Claude Giroux · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–0
Penalties (6)
- P2 1:49PHIMichael Raffl: Interference2 min
- P2 9:59PHIAndrew MacDonald: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:35NYRMatt Puempel: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:14PHIClaude Giroux: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:59NYRMats Zuccarello: Interference2 min
- P3 19:19NYRRyan McDonagh: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestRead – Cousins – Couturier9:32
xG 1.03–0.27 (79%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl13:28
xG 0.69–0.65 (52%)attempts 11–20goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Schenn – Konecny10:52
xG 0.50–0.46 (52%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Bellemare – Lyubimov6:30
xG 0.00–0.31 (0%)attempts 0–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Gudas15:34
xG 1.27–0.61 (68%)attempts 19–23goals 0–0
- Manning – Gostisbehere11:51
xG 0.35–0.59 (38%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Provorov17:52
xG 0.37–0.91 (29%)attempts 8–20goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGrabner – Miller – Puempel11:07
xG 1.03–0.68 (60%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Pirri – Lindberg – Vesey6:35
xG 0.19–0.10 (65%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Nash – Zibanejad – Buchnevich10:14
xG 0.34–0.67 (34%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello13:41
xG 0.37–0.90 (29%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClendening – Skjei10:59
xG 0.54–0.40 (58%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Holden – Clendening2:10
xG 0.14–0.01 (94%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Klein – Holden13:22
xG 0.58–0.52 (53%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).