Wed, Jan 25, 2017·Pepsi Center, Denver
Vancouver Canucks 3, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 120 | 111 | 110 | 341 |
| COL | 09 | 110 | 113 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:55VANSven BaertschiAssists: Bo Horvat, Luca Sbisa · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 7:04VANMarkus GranlundUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 16:28COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nikita Zadorov, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–1
- P3 6:18COLMatt NietoAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 11:46VANSven BaertschiPPGWGAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P2 18:33VANLoui Eriksson: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:54VANAlex Biega: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 10:44COLGabriel Landeskog: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:27COLGabriel Landeskog: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSkille – Chaput – Gaunce7:40
xG 0.52–0.22 (71%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Sedin – Sedin – Eriksson14:51
xG 0.59–0.34 (64%)attempts 24–10goals 0–0
- Sutter – Granlund – Megna13:02
xG 0.32–0.20 (62%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Burrows – Baertschi – Horvat11:57
xG 0.27–0.78 (26%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Stecher19:00
xG 0.78–0.48 (62%)attempts 22–10goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Tanev16:00
xG 0.38–0.69 (36%)attempts 17–19goals 2–2
- Biega – Tryamkin14:35
xG 0.25–0.72 (26%)attempts 11–22goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestGrigorenko – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:24
xG 0.79–0.22 (79%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Duchene – Nieto – Landeskog11:02
xG 0.45–0.41 (53%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Comeau – Soderberg – Martinsen12:40
xG 0.28–0.45 (38%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Iginla – Mitchell – Colborne10:34
xG 0.27–0.44 (38%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Zadorov16:41
xG 0.39–0.28 (58%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Beauchemin – Goloubef18:31
xG 0.65–0.66 (49%)attempts 22–18goals 0–1
- Beauchemin – Wiercioch2:10
xG 0.03–0.09 (28%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).