Thu, Jan 26, 2017·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Florida Panthers 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 18 | 012 | 012 | 00 | 132 |
| FLA | 112 | 010 | 012 | 13 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:55FLAJussi JokinenSHAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 11:33TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Alex Killorn · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- OT 1:49FLAJonathan MarchessaultPPGWGAssists: Keith Yandle, Jussi Jokinen · Snap, 0.16 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:05TBLJT Brown: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:45FLAAlexander Petrovic: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:55TBLJake Dotchin: Interference2 min
- P2 6:33FLAKeith Yandle: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:46FLAAlexander Petrovic: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:36FLAShawn Thornton: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:36FLAGreg McKegg: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:36TBLGabriel Dumont: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:48TBLJake Dotchin: Interference2 min
- P3 10:48FLAJussi Jokinen: Embellishment2 min
- OT 0:49TBLTyler Johnson: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sgarbossa won the faceoff against Namestnikov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Kucherov – Namestnikov9:53
xG 0.74–0.07 (91%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Filppula – Boyle – Drouin9:52
xG 0.64–0.11 (85%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Condra – Dumont – Paquette6:35
xG 0.26–0.13 (66%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Kucherov2:23
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Dotchin14:38
xG 1.12–0.49 (70%)attempts 20–15goals 0–0
- Stralman – Garrison2:47
xG 0.02–0.01 (77%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Garrison – Sustr9:12
xG 0.34–0.33 (50%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Smith – Trocheck10:24
xG 0.43–0.36 (54%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Sgarbossa8:46
xG 0.17–0.25 (40%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Jagr – Marchessault – McCann11:09
xG 0.09–0.29 (23%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Thornton – McKegg – Bjugstad4:00
xG 0.19–0.56 (25%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Pysyk – Matheson2:16
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Yandle – Demers14:55
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Petrovic – Matheson10:55
xG 0.35–0.49 (41%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).