Thu, Jan 26, 2017·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 114 | 08 | 211 | 333 |
| NSH | 09 | 215 | 28 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:25CBJBrandon SaadAssists: Seth Jones, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 5:41NSHCalle JarnkrokPPAssists: Colin Wilson, Mike Fisher · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 9:01NSHHarry ZolnierczykAssists: Colton Sissons, Cody McLeod · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 6:03NSHCraig SmithAssists: Mattias Ekholm, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–3
- P3 9:12CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 11:18NSHCraig SmithGWGAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Mike Fisher · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 17:09CBJRyan MurrayAssists: Zach Werenski, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:03CBJScott Hartnell: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:49CBJMatt Calvert: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:38NSHAnthony Bitetto: Holding2 min
- P2 16:55CBJRyan Murray: Interference2 min
- P3 8:08CBJScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:08NSHMatt Irwin: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:48NSHMatt Irwin: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Gagner – Sedlak8:29
xG 0.67–0.29 (69%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson11:36
xG 0.26–0.30 (46%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
- Foligno – Saad – Wennberg12:32
xG 0.41–0.70 (37%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Jenner – Karlsson – Anderson7:50
xG 0.21–0.60 (25%)attempts 6–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard12:01
xG 0.67–0.33 (67%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski15:14
xG 0.69–0.38 (64%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Johnson – Murray4:22
xG 0.07–0.15 (32%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson11:45
xG 0.64–0.20 (76%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- McLeod – Zolnierczyk – Sissons5:55
xG 0.38–0.15 (72%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Neal – Wilson – Jarnkrok10:43
xG 0.25–0.23 (53%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Fisher – Smith – Watson10:05
xG 0.55–0.53 (51%)attempts 10–10goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm18:19
xG 0.95–0.36 (73%)attempts 24–9goals 2–0
- Weber – Bitetto8:16
xG 0.25–0.22 (53%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Ellis – Irwin15:07
xG 0.54–0.79 (41%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).