Thu, Jan 26, 2017·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
St. Louis Blues 1, Minnesota Wild 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 010 | 17 | 08 | 125 |
| MIN | 08 | 318 | 27 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:23MINErik HaulaAssists: Zach Parise, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 4:47STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Jori Lehtera · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 12:19MINTyler GraovacGWGAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–2
- P2 19:48MINMikko KoivuPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–3
- P3 1:29MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Eric Staal, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–4
- P3 2:11MINMikael GranlundAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:38MINChris Stewart: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:39STLCarter Hutton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:59MINZach Parise: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:19STLJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Stastny – Jaskin4:51
xG 0.15–0.03 (83%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Berglund – Perron – Fabbri4:01
xG 0.03–0.06 (35%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Berglund – Perron – Jaskin6:42
xG 0.13–0.21 (39%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Upshall – Reaves – Barbashev8:23
xG 0.05–0.24 (18%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Shattenkirk8:21
xG 0.12–0.04 (74%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Edmundson3:44
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Parayko6:46
xG 0.17–0.18 (49%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Zucker – Granlund14:59
xG 1.41–0.29 (83%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Pominville – Parise – Haula12:43
xG 0.77–0.13 (85%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Stewart – Schroeder – Graovac9:55
xG 0.20–0.25 (45%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Staal – Coyle – Niederreiter9:32
xG 0.10–0.17 (37%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon19:04
xG 1.27–0.21 (86%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Scandella – Dumba16:50
xG 1.19–0.40 (75%)attempts 18–13goals 2–1
- Prosser – Reilly14:37
xG 0.24–0.40 (38%)attempts 10–25goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).