Thu, Jan 26, 2017·United Center, Chicago
Winnipeg Jets 5, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 28 | 012 | 313 | 533 |
| CHI | 118 | 214 | 09 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:16WPGPatrik LainePPAssists: Bryan Little, Nikolaj Ehlers · Snap, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 6:58WPGShawn MatthiasAssists: Jacob Trouba · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P1 13:07CHIDuncan KeithPPAssists: Brent Seabrook, Artem Anisimov · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 4:00CHINick SchmaltzUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 16:37CHITanner KeroAssists: Patrick Kane, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 15:57WPGAndrew CoppAssists: Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 16:29WPGBryan LittleGWGAssists: Jacob Trouba, Patrik Laine · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 17:57WPGMark ScheifeleENAssists: Andrew Copp, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.71 xG5–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:31CHIRichard Panik: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 13:02WPGNic Petan: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:30WPGChris Thorburn: Interference2 min
- P2 1:07WPGToby Enstrom: Interference2 min
- P2 7:19CHIRyan Hartman: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:55WPGAdam Lowry: Interference2 min
- P2 13:34CHIPatrick Kane: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:20CHITanner Kero: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00WPGBlake Wheeler: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 18:29CHIRichard Panik: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Anisimov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Petan – Tanev2:22
xG 0.20–0.02 (93%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Copp11:40
xG 0.36–0.50 (42%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Matthias – Lowry – Armia10:14
xG 0.08–0.32 (20%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Little – Ehlers – Laine11:38
xG 0.24–1.17 (17%)attempts 5–19goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Byfuglien – Trouba3:19
xG 0.02–0.14 (12%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Morrissey15:22
xG 0.44–0.70 (39%)attempts 12–16goals 1–1
- Enstrom – Trouba14:15
xG 0.39–0.83 (32%)attempts 8–15goals 2–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Panik – Hartman9:11
xG 0.94–0.22 (81%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Hossa – Kruger – Schmaltz7:21
xG 0.54–0.11 (84%)attempts 11–2goals 0–1
- Desjardins – Hinostroza – Kero4:39
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin9:13
xG 0.25–0.37 (41%)attempts 7–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Hjalmarsson10:16
xG 0.99–0.16 (86%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Campbell – van Riemsdyk13:52
xG 0.43–0.15 (74%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Seabrook – Kempny7:47
xG 0.55–0.27 (67%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).